Un interessante link dal sito Bloomberg


Il link è ‘Deutsche Bank: Bond Investors Are About to Get Crushed as a New Global Cycle Kicks Off’.


Un passo: ‘Benign globalization and demographic forces have tamed inflation in recent decades fueling stunning real returns in fixed income from the 1980s, while equities, despite the higher returns on offer, saw a much smaller level of outperformance in this period’. Questa fase sta finendo.

Altri due passi:

‘The Deutsche analysts say:

“It seems the status quo can’t hold for much longer. Monetary policy can’t be used as the predominant policy tool to the exclusion of the alternatives. Inequality surely can’t continue much further without a political backlash. Globalization and perhaps free movement/immigration can’t continue in its current form without a similar such social/political response.”

They conclude:

“Maybe it will be more difficult in today’s integrated world to limit international capital flows in the same ways as after WWII, so perhaps the cushion will come from a long period ahead of money printing and bond purchasing to ensure that there is no run on debt markets given the likely negative real returns.”

While equities will likely outperform bonds in the decades to come, the bank argues that the data suggests stocks will still lag their long-term return average. […]

Deutsche Bank’s warnings follow Bank of America Corp. analysts last month, who reckon that financial assets are poised to underperform real-economy assets — such as commodities and collectible items — citing high financial-market valuations, and the prospect of looser fiscal policy, trade protectionism and wealth redistribution in developed countries. The bearish prognostications are premised on one big call, of course: there will be no positive productivity shock in advanced economies in the coming decades.’




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